March 26, 2009

Leroy Watson
TigerSportsReport.com Columnist

Only in tonight's Memphis-Mizzou game will you find:

? A contest between two teams in the RPI top 10;

? Two combatants with 30 or more victories each (Memphis 33, Mizzou 31)

? A match-up of two conference tournament winners (C-USA and Big 12)

Memphis fans are enjoying the team's fourth consecutive Sweet Sixteen. What will it take to make their fourth straight Elite Eight?

Many column inches have been written (some of them by yours truly) that mention the similarities between Memphis and Missouri. With the game rapidly approaching, here are some specifics on the amazing likenesses between the teams from both schools:

Size

It all starts here. John Calipari and Mike Anderson like their teams built on a new-age model. Though each team has exactly one "wide body" on the roster?Memphis with Pierre Henderson-Niles (6'8", 295), Missouri with Steve Moore (6'9", 265)?none of the players who will spend significant time on the floor weighs more than 245.

Both systems emphasize long, quick players that can exploit their physical attributes on both offense and defense.

When browsing the rosters, this is what you will find: Memphis has seven players in their nine-man rotation standing 6'5" or better; Missouri regularly uses 11 players, of whom seven are between 6'6" and 6'9".

Both teams exploit their superior size and length defensively. The Tigers of Memphis press in order to change the momentum or generally rattle a poor ball-handling team. The Tigers from Missouri, on the other hand, press as part of their base defensive package.

Memphis exploits the size of its wing players, who can just shoot over smaller defenders. Missouri will have to find a solution for that problem.

A very intriguing head-to-head will feature 6'9", 225-lb. Robert Dozier of Memphis clashing with 6'8" DeMarre Carroll for Mizzou. The two are virtually clones. Each has burgeoning post moves, remarkably improved outside shooting ability and is absolutely critical to his team's chances of winning.

Defensive pressure

Both teams create offense from their defensive prowess. This is a basic tenet of what John Calipari has been running since he began coaching; the same is true of Mike Anderson, who cut his teeth for 20-odd years under Nolan Richardson.

Neither team (though the perception has changed dramatically for Memphis over the past two years) gets enough credit for their defensive intensity. People identify Memphis with the dribble-drive motion offense; Mizzou is noted for its "Fastest 40 Minutes" scheme.

However, defense is the foundation of everything that both clubs do. Both teams are in the top five in the nation in steals, and each team swarms the perimeter, keeping the opposition below 30 percent on three-point field goal attempts.

One producing steals or rebounds, each team is eager to run the fast break, and each squad has an array of effective scorers in transition.

Each team has a conference defensive player of the year on the roster: Antonio Anderson for Memphis, J. T. Tiller for Missouri.

Senior leadership/experience

Both teams are stocked with plenty of experience in the starting lineup. Memphis, of course, has two seniors, two juniors and a freshman.

Missouri counters with three seniors and two juniors.

Though Missouri has not competed this deep in the NCAA Tournament in many years, they are experienced playing against tough competition, having gone 12-4 in the Big 12 this season and being victorious in the Big 12 tournament. Having won 30 games, this bunch from Mizzou is familiar with winning.

Memphis is able to draw on the three previous trips to the Elite 8; two starters (Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier) played on every one of those teams, while the junior returnees (Pierre Henderson-Niles, Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack) have been a part of an Elite 8 and a championship game.

The edge goes to Memphis, with so much tournament-tested bench help. In the starting line-up, though, it's definitely even.

With so many similarities, what are the keys to victory for Memphis tonight?

Memphis must get Robert Dozier off to a good start: Dozier is a quiet, unselfish person by nature. This is wonderful for relationships; it is terrible for a key offensive performer for a national power.

If Robert gets off to a fast start, and DeMarre Carroll cannot at least match his intensity, Missouri is in big trouble.

Dozier needs to exceed his season average of 13 ppg and 7 rpg, and needs to test Carroll right away to see if his rolled ankle is healthy; Carroll was injured in practice yesterday but insists he is 100%.

Memphis must make good decisions against the Missouri press: During the romp over Maryland, the Terps turned to a full court press late in the second in half, out of sheer desperation.

It yielded results, if only for a short time.

With a shade under five minutes left, Maryland forced a Tiger turnover, got a steal which led to a fast break dunk, and forced a shot-clock violation in five Tiger possessions. On the heels of a 9-0 Memphis run, Maryland produced a 10-0 spurt of their own.

The point is, defensive pressure can affect Memphis (just like any other team) if good decisions are not made.

Memphis must continue to hit the boards with reckless abandon: Calipari's team has been out-rebounded only five times all season, and never by more than four boards. Offensive rebounding is one of the team's strengths, as even the guards (particularly Anderson and Evans) contribute.

For the opposition, Carroll and Leo Lyons for Missouri are the leaders of the pack, pacing Mizzou in points and rebounds. Missouri gets 32 points and 13 rebounds per contest from their senior big men.

Shawn Taggart and Dozier have to keep them contained. Holding the Missouri duo below their season averages would be preferred; however, that might be unrealistic.

As long as Taggart and Dozier stay out of foul trouble and at least match Carroll and Lyons, Memphis is going to be in good shape.

Remain balanced with three-point attempts: For the Memphis Attack to perform at optimum levels, the team needs to hoist at least 12-15 three-point attempts. However, the team should not take more than 20-22. One way or the other, the team needs to convert at least six treys.

When Memphis is too "three-happy," the offense gets out of sync. It is necessary to keep the defense honest with some threes, but too many (unless they are going in, of course) will play right into Missouri's hands.

DDM is designed to get lay-ups and floaters in the lane, not necessarily threes.

In the final analysis, Memphis should win this basketball game. Though Missouri is a talented, tenacious, well-coached team, Memphis is more talented, just as tenacious and just as well-coached.

When all else is equal, go with the more talented team.