The Big 12 has officially accepted the invitation of 3 American Conference schools in Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati. Those teams will look to leave before the required 27 month notice that's in the AAC bylaws.
Where will the AAC turn to?
AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco has stated, “The American has been Power 6 all along and will be one moving forward.” So the AAC will expand and will look to do so quickly.
Plenty of names have been floating around from Boise St to Coastal Carolina.
What should the criteria be when thinking about what schools to invite? Market size seems to be a factor but I don't think it's as important as years past. The reasoning is simple. I'd rather have a successful team than a bad team in a big market.
The next round of TV negotiations will be less of "what's the size of your TV market" and more of "how many eyeballs will watch the teams in your conference".
FAU or FIU may bring you into the market of Miami (FL) but do they really bring eyeballs to your games on TV or streaming? Boise St isn't in a huge market but they will bring eyeballs to the TV.
The American can get creative. Imagine if they took the rest of the service academies? Army, Navy, and Air Force all in the same conference...and that conference is called the American Conference...it's a thought.
What about the Army-Navy game?
That game is traditionally the last game of the regular season. I asked the Navy players at the 2019 AAC Media Day who they would want the AAC to add. They all said Army. I then said how would the Army-Navy game work when that game is played after the AAC Championship game.
They responded with move the Army-Navy game to the first game of the season instead of the last game of the season. It could work.
Let's list all the possible teams and compare them. Remember, these numbers may be skewed a little because of the 2020 season. Boise, for instance, didn't play a full schedule. They only played in 7 games. Obviously the TV viewership for Army will be higher than anybody due to the Army-Navy game but that's a good thing. The Army-Navy game could be a conference game...
*UAB didn't have a team 5 years ago. So we used their 2014 year as their 5th year.
**Coastal Carolina has only been a FBS member for 4 years, so their stats are a 4 year average. All of Coastal Carolina's viewership is from 2020. They have no TV viewership before last season per sportswatch.
***Liberty has only been FBS for 3 seasons so their stats are a 3 year average.
The American Conference has a decision to make. Do they expand by 3 to get back to 11? Expand by 4 to get to 12? Do you expand by 6 to get to 14? Or do you go all in and expand by 8 to go to 16?
Top 5 by 5 year win average
1- Appy State (10.4)
2- Boise St (9.6)
3- Army (8.6)
4- San Diego St (8.4)
5- UAB and Liberty (8)
Top 5 by 5 yr Viewer numbers
1- Army (3.45 Million)
2- Coastal Carolina (1.1 Million)
3- Marshall (951K)
4- San Diego St (882K)
5- Boise St (873K)
Who would you add? Did we miss someone? Let us know in the message boards
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