Memphis (9-3; 6-2 AAC) vs Iowa State (7-5; 6-3 Big 12)

Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN

When: December 29, 2023 2:30PM Central

TV: ESPN

Current Odds: Memphis +10.5 (Total: 57.5)

From MemphisWeather.Net:

Cold with snow/rain showers possible

Temperatures falling into the 30s, breezy, west winds at 10-15mph.

Passing: Rocco Becht (FR) 209-329 (63.5%) 20 TDs, 8 Interceptions

Rushing: Abu Sama III (FR) 72 carries, 610 yds (8.47 ypc), 6 TDs

Receiving: Jaylin Noel (JR) 60 receptions, 741 yards, 6 TDs

Interceptions: Jeremiah Cooper (SO) 5 interceptions, 1 TD

Sacks: J.R. Singleton (JR) 3.5 sacks

For Iowa State to be successful, they need to rely on their defense. In their 5 losses this season, they gave up an average of 26.8 points, while holding opponents to 18 points per game in their 7 wins.

Turnovers are also a huge key for a Cyclone offense that has performed a little under average this season- not entirely unexpected with a freshman QB. In their wins, Iowa State is +12 in turnover margin, and -4 in their losses.

Look for the Cyclones to take advantage of their size up front to run the football on offense. Iowa State has rushed for more than 200 yards three times this season including 258 in their last game vs Kansas State in a snowstorm.

On defense, the Cyclones have a huge size advantage up front. When coupled with the fact that Memphis' offensive line will be down 2-3 starters, that could give them an opportunity to spend time in the Memphis backfield with players like Joey Petersen (7 tackles for loss) and Caleb Bacon (6.5 TFLs).

Passing: Seth Henigan 293-441 (66.4%) 28 TDs, 9 Interceptions

Rushing: Blake Watson 177 carries, 1,083 yards (6.11 ypc), 14 TDs

Receiving: Roc Taylor 61 receptions, 981 yards, 4 TDs

Tackles: Chandler Martin, 87 tackes (12 for loss), 2 sacks, 2 Interceptions

Despite being down 2-3 offensive line starters, Memphis' best chance to win this game is to keep the offense on the field. Memphis has had far more success on offense this season (particularly through the air) and the Tigers will need to put the game on Seth Henigan's shoulders to pull this one out. Look for Memphis to get the ball out quickly and allow Taylor and the rest of the receiving corps to make plays. By getting the ball out quickly, the Iowa State pass rush will be someone negated.

Memphis hasn't been quite the turnover margin machine they've been in years past, but they are +9 on the season. It isn't always about just turning the ball over, but where you turn the ball over. The Tigers have done a good job this season of not putting the defense in bad situations by turning it over deep in their own territory.

The Memphis defense...a complete tale of two seasons. The first 5 games, they gave up an average of just 24.8 points per game, and allowed over 46 per game over the last 7. Chandler Martin is going to have to continue his stellar play for a Tiger defense that is 86th or worse in all but 2 defensive metrics. In quite the statistical oddity, Memphis is tied for 16th in country in 3rd down defense and 4th in 4th down defense.

Long and short, Memphis needs to turn this game into a track meet. Iowa State is probably deeper, but with the first unit on offense, Memphis likely has better athletes at the skill positions. Look for Memphis to get Blake Watson involved early and often to try and take pressure off the passing game.

Reverting to my "Negative Nelly" moniker, this is going to be a tough game for Memphis to win. Iowa State is likely the most physical team the Tigers have faced this season. Memphis can't afford to give an Iowa State offense extra chances with penalties and turnovers. While not as bad as their counterparts in Iowa City, the Iowa State offense has struggled to move the ball and score at times this year.

That said, the depth of the Cyclones and the weather will likely hamper the Memphis offense and the Cyclones will do enough to win.

Final Score:

Iowa State 35

Memphis 17