It was the start of the 4th quarter and Memphis was down 27-24. They have a decision to make. Go for it on a 4th and 5 or kick a a 38 yard field goal.
If you were watching the TigerSportsReport watch party, you would have heard a discussion between John Maddox, Larry Marley, and myself.
The discussion was whether or not to go for it. John and Larry (from my memory, I've slept since then) wanted to go for it and agreed with Memphis' decision to go for it.
I, on the other hand, wanted to play it safe and take the points. I remember emphatically saying "ALWAYS TAKE THE POINTS!".
What happened? Let's watch the play.
The result wasn't what Memphis, John, Larry, or any Tiger fan wanted. Meanwhile, I threw my hands up in the direction of my two friends and colleagues and said, "THAT'S WHY YOU TAKE THE POINTS!"
Now, I fully understand if they had converted and eventually scored that all of this would be a moot point but at the time of the decision we wouldn't know the outcome.
Just for fun (and maybe just my incessant need to be right) I used SportsSource analytics WinDecision™ Tool to see what analytics say to do in this situation.
Decision Options and Possible Outcomes
As you can see, at this point of the game the home team (Mizzou) had a 76.1% chance of winning the game.
SportSource Analytics has stats from every game/season since 2001. So, since 2001, SportSource found 25 similar situations to what Memphis faced. 68% of those situations (17 of 25 Play) the team decided to kick the field goal. 32% decided to run a play (8 of 25 Play).
The possible outcome of making a 38 yd Field Goal per SportSource is 67.8%.
The possibility of running a play and NOT getting the first down according to SportSource is 53.9%
The possibility of getting a turnover (like Memphis did) according to SportSource is 0.9%.
Coach Decision History in Similar Situations
Similar Play Summary
32.0% of teams 'Run a Play' (8 of 25) and went on to win 37.5% of the time.
• Teams Ran the ball 50.0% of the time.
• Teams Passed the ball 50.0% of the time.
68.0% of teams 'Kick a FG' (17 of 25) and went on to win 35.3% of the time.
Similar Plays Breakdown
Who was right?
There's no guarantee that if Memphis would have gone for the 38 yard field goal that they would have made it. BUT 3rd string kicker Tanner Gillis did make a 43-yarder earlier in the game.
In the end, Memphis lost the game but they certainly had a chance to win. They never gave up and fought till the end.
John, Larry, and I will continue to debate and second guess nearly every coaching decision. It's our job.
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