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Published Feb 14, 2023
Team WinPact™ Overview for the 2022 season
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Bryan Moss  •  TigerSportsReport
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TigerSportsReport partnered with SportSource Analytics to provide you with the most in-depth analytical coverage you'll find covering the Memphis football team.

We've written articles about Memphis Football Tendencies, we looked at the Coming Out Tendencies – First 3 Plays of the Drive. In part 2 we looked at the Field Zone Offensive Drive Breakdown. Part 3 we looked at the Overall Down and Distance Play Tendencies. In part 4 we looked at Basic Tendencies. Part 5 looked at the Defense Scouting Report by down and distance for the 2022 season.

Now we'll take a look at the Tigers WinPact™. What's WinPact™? Here's how SportSource explains it.

"There are several ways to measure a player’s performance on the field. You can look at statistics (i.e. rushing yards, etc.), you can watch film to break down technique, or you can focus on results (winning or losing). As a platform, we have almost every conceivable statistic that is used in football today, and we have even invented several new ones that have become extremely popular in measuring a team or coach or player’s performance. However, there were two noticeable flaws in evaluating football statistics today. First, they typically don’t measure the effectiveness of important positions that ultimately decide wins and losses, notably the offensive and defensive line. Secondly, they don’t take into account whether a play was impactful on the primary goal, which is winning the game. A 14 yard gain on 3rd and 17 is a great play statistically, but not enough to increase your chance of winning the game. Which football plays impact winning the game? Which players are on the field for those plays? To answer this question, we invented WinPact™ (a combination of Win Probability and Impact. It has one goal, to measure how much each player contributes to winning and losing. From there, you can also determine player value as well as which phase of the game is ultimately causing a team to win or lose."

How do you measure WinPact™?

SportSource measures the WinPact™ of every play. Here is the formula:

WinPact™ = `Win Probability After the Play` MINUS `Win Probability Before the Play`

A positive WinPact™ at either the player or team level means that the player/team IMPROVED the overall win probability when they were on the field. A negative WinPact™ means that the player/team DECREASED the overall win probability when they were on the field.

How do you compare WinPact™ when evaluating a team? Offense versus Defense?

Both Offensive and Defensive units will collectively affect a team’s win probability. When the overall WinPact™ Score is higher for Offense than it is for Defense (quite typical), that means that the Offensive unit is the more impactful unit on the field. Conversely, when the Defense’s WinPact™ Score is higher, the Defense is more impactful and doing a better job at raising the team’s overall chance of winning.

Let's take a look at Memphis' WinPact™

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